Duke vs. Michigan State March 29 Free Pick

This has been a highly-anticipated matchup since the Midwest region was named on Selection Sunday. Duke takes on Michigan State on Friday in what should be a dandy. The opening line has Duke as a 1.5-point favorite to move on to the Elite Eight.

Free Pick

Obviously Keith Appling’s health is a bit of a concern for me. He says he will play but his shoulder injury is no joke. If it is going to be re-aggravated easily or if it affects his shooting ability the advantage swings to Duke. It’s that tight of a game.

There is only one area of this game where I see one team having a distinct advantage and that is on the boards in MSU’s direction. Duke has a lot of size but the thing is that they aren’t a great rebounding team, which is a common misconception this year about the Blue Devils. Plumlee is a good rebounder but Ryan Kelly is not the type of rebounder you expect to get out of a power forward of his size because of the way he plays. Obviously Plumlee has his hands full with Derrick Nix but Duke fans should be a little concerned with Kelly’s strength going up against Adreian Payne. Both the Sparty bigs like to crash the offensive boards hard and this game will likely come down to whomever can get the most extended possessions.

Offensively, Duke is going to try and spread Michigan State as thin as they possibly can. I expect Ryan Kelly to spend the vast majority of his day outside the three-point arch to neutralize Payne as a shot-blocker and give Plumlee – who will have to use his agility to take advantage of Nix – some space to operate. The problem is that this is very dependent on Duke knocking down the outside shot, which is never a nice thing to have to rely on in a single game elimination format. Still, you know Izzo will respect the Duke outside shooters. Even if he does, I’m not so sure the Blue Devils’ guards are consistently quick enough off the bounce to penetrate the perimeter defense of Appling, Harris, Dawson or Trice. Sparticus has excellent defenders at all five spots on the floor in addition to a great team defense. It’s hard for me to find one matchup that Duke can look to in crunch time.

On the other hand, for MSU, Derrick Nix is literally a mismatch against any center in the nation. His size and strength makes him arguably the toughest matchup left in the tournament. As good as Mason Plumlee is, I’m not sure that he is going to be able to muscle Nix who will use his width to spin off Plumlee and establish deep position in the post. As reluctant as Michigan State has been all year to just give Adreian Payne the damn ball, I still remain hopeful they give him the necessary touches to pick on Ryan Kelly. I don’t think Kelly has neither the strength nor the nimbleness inside eight feet to make Payne inefficient. On the outside, you have a pretty even matchup of perimeter players with Appling/Harris/Dawson vs. Cook/Curry/Sulaimon. If one trio is able to hit shots at a significantly higher clip than the other that team will win. It would be unwarranted for me to suggest such a thing, however. Both units are talented, experienced and competitive. For as much press as McLemore, Bennett and Marcus Smart got this year, look what Freshman are still alive and going head to head in the toughest region in the field (I know McLemore is still alive, but either way). Gary Harris and Rasheed Sulaimon are two of the most refined, quiet and effective Freshman guards of the last few years in college basketball. Despite playing for two of the biggest programs and having huge Diaper Dandy campaigns, we still hear about everyone else. They may not provide the highlight reel play on a weekly basis but both of these guys are going to be steady, winning shooting guards in the NBA for a long time. Give me either of these guys on my team over almost any Freshman in the country. Real winners who are mature enough to be able to play for the two best coaches in the world right now.

This is gonna be awesome. There is little doubt in my mind that both of these squads are in the top eight teams in the country but one is going home. You have all the talent you could ever want on the floor and the two best minds on the sidelines moving their chess pieces for 40 minutes. If there is one game I’m watching for the rest of the tournament it’s this one, I swear. Sparty slays the Devils.

Pick: Michigan State +1.5