Kentucky vs Notre Dame Free Betting Pick

The defending National Champion Wildcats (4-1) travel to South Bend tonight to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1).  The contest is part of the SEC-Big East Challenge, but is also the 61st renewal of one of College Basketball’s longer running rivalries.  The Wildcats own a 42-18 edge in the series which dates back to 1929.  Surprisingly the Irish held an 11-5 edge in the series in 1950, but have fallen to the Cats in 37 of the last 44 meetings.  The series has been predominantly played on neutral courts, but the Irish do lead the series 8-6 in South Bend.  The Irish have a long history as Giant Killers at home and look to add another notch to the shillelagh tonight.

Here are the odds according to 5Dimes.eu our top rated bookie.

Kentucky vs Notre Dame Odds

Notre Dame  -2
Kentucky  +2

Over/Under  133

Prediction

I like the Irish in this matchup for several reasons.  First and foremost this is Kentucky’s first true road game of the season, and while this an immensely talented group it is also extremely inexperienced.  As dominant as last seasons Kentucky team was, they nearly came totally unglued the first time in a hostile environment at Indiana’s Assembly Hall.  To their credit , they pulled themselves together and nearly won the game if not for Watford’s ESPY winning drain-o at the buzzer.  While the Joyce Center might not be as intimidating as Assembly Hall, there is a mystique to the building when the national spotlight is on.  Irish fans can be counted on to be particularly high spirited as the storied football program once again has it’s sights set on a national title.

Mike Brey teams simply don’t beat themselves, which I think will play a big factor in this games outcome.  The Irish rarely turn the ball over and are expert at defending without fouling.  The youthful Cats will likely need to scratch and claw for 40 minutes as opposed to big spurts fed off of momentum.  The extremely seasoned and well coached home team has the advantage in these types of games more often than not.

Play:  Notre Dame  -2 (5Dimes.eu)

Lastly, the line movements are interesting here in that the line opened at ND -1 and has moved to -2 while the betting trend shows 81% of the action coming down on Kentucky.